Exact Sciences evaluated the potential impact of MCED screening on Stage IV cancer incidence for 12 cancers that represent 70% of all cancer incidence in the US. A simulation model for MCED (SIMCED), a microsimulation model of 12 solid tumor cancers was developed. Cancer type- and stage-specific MCED test sensitivities were derived from the PRE-ASCEND case-control study on average-risk American adults. The model was calibrated to reproduce annual incidence rates of cancer diagnosis via usual care as captured in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The MCED test was administered at the beginning of each year to individuals aged <85 years.

Key Highlights:

• Over the 50-year simulation horizon, the Stage IV incidence rate per 100,000 was 5,225 in the usual care-only arm and 3,954 in the usual care + MCED arm. 

• Overall, the supplemental use of MCED screening reduced Stage IV incidence by 1,271 (24%) per 100,000.

• The modeling study suggests that the supplemental use of MCED screening could reduce Stage IV incidence for 12 cancers by 24% over 50 years.

• Stage IV incidence reduction was most pronounced (in terms of absolute reduction) for lung, colorectal, and pancreatic cancers.

KOL insights

“Exact Sciences' accumulating evidence demonstrates that earlier and more personalized treatment interventions lead to greater success for people living with cancer. Therefore, effective cancer screening and diagnostic tools are crucial for improving patient outcomes” – Expert Opinion.

Conclusion

Overall, in a 50-year modeling simulation by Exact Sciences, MCED testing led to 1,323 fewer Stage IV cancer diagnoses (a 24% reduction) compared to usual care. Notably, 38% of these reductions were due to screening for cancers without recommended guidelines, highlighting the potential of novel MCED strategies to detect cancers earlier and initiate treatment interventions sooner. Further investigation is needed to understand the real-world impact and cost-effectiveness of MCED tests.