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Herpes Simplex - Epidemiology Forecast - 2034

Published Date : 2025

Pages : 60

Region : United States, Japan, EU4 & UK

Summary
TOC Table of Content
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Herpes Simplex Epidemiology Forecast

Key Highlights

Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV) primarily impacts populations through both oral (HSV-1) and genital (HSV-2) infections. The virus is largely transmitted via direct contact with infected lesions or mucosal surfaces. In 2023, the estimated HSV-affected population in the 7MM stands at roughly 233 million.
According to DelveInsight analysis, in 2023, the US represented the largest share of the symptomatic HSV population within the 7MM, accounting for 66% of the total cases.
HSV represents a growing health concern in the United States, with its prevalence rising over recent decades. DelveInsight estimates indicate that in 2023, the highest number of cases are in females (~7,171 thousand), as compared to males with nearly 5,867 thousand cases.
According to a 2023 assessment by DelveInsight, recurrent herpes simplex virus (HSV) cases in Japan were predominantly caused by HSV-2, which accounted for more than 67% of cases. HSV-1 followed as the secondary cause, contributing to approximately 33% of the recurrent infections in the country.
In 2023, Japan documented around 5,087 thousand symptomatic HSV cases, highlighting a notable prevalence within the population. This case disparity emphasizes the importance of targeted measures in addressing HSV’s impact on public health in Japan, underscoring the need for enhanced awareness, preventive strategies, and effective treatment options to manage its spread.

DelveInsight’s “Herpes Simplex (HSV)– Epidemiology Forecast – 2034” report delivers an in-depth understanding of Herpes Simplex (HSV), historical and forecasted epidemiology of Herpes Simplex (HSV) in the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Geography Covered

The United States
EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom
Japan

Study Period: 2021-2034

Herpes Simplex (HSV) Understanding

Herpes Simplex (HSV) Overview

Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV) is a common viral pathogen classified into two primary types: HSV-1, typically associated with oral infections, and HSV-2, commonly linked to genital herpes. Both strains belong to the Herpesviridae family and establish lifelong infections through latency in neuronal cells, causing periodic reactivation and symptomatic outbreaks. Transmission occurs via direct contact with infectious lesions or mucosal surfaces, contributing to HSV’s high prevalence worldwide. HSV infections pose significant public health challenges, as they increase susceptibility to other infections, like HIV, and impact quality of life, particularly in cases of recurrent symptomatic episodes or severe complications.

Herpes Simplex (HSV) Diagnosis

Diagnosing HSV infection involves clinical evaluation and laboratory testing, particularly when symptoms are present. PCR testing is the most sensitive method, detecting HSV DNA in lesion samples, and is considered the standard for diagnosing active infections. Alternatively, viral culture may be used, though it is less sensitive, particularly for recurrent lesions. Serologic testing is helpful to detect past exposure in asymptomatic individuals or when lesions are absent, distinguishing between HSV-1 and HSV-2. Accurate diagnosis is essential for managing and understanding transmission risk, as well as for providing tailored treatment options and counseling on symptom management and recurrence prevention.

Further details related to diagnosis are provided in the report…

Herpes Simplex (HSV) Epidemiology

For the purpose of designing the patient-based model for HSV, the report provides historical as well as forecasted epidemiology segmented by Total Seroprevalence of HSV, Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV, Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV, Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV, and Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in the 7MM covering the United States, EU4 countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan, from 2021 to 2034.

As per DelveInsight’s estimates, in 2023, the total seroprevalent cases Herpes Simplex in the US were estimated to be ~39% in 7MM. Furthermore, projections indicate a concerning trend of decreasing prevalence, suggesting that the number of diagnosed Herpes Simplex cases is expected to decrease in the coming years.
Total diagnosed prevalent cases of Herpes Simplex in Japan was ~1,555 thousand in 2023. These cases of Herpes Simplex in the 7MM is expected to decrease throughout the study period, i.e., 2021-2034.
Total gender-specific cases of herpes simplex in EU4 and the UK were observed to be approximately 45% males and 55% for female in 2023, these cases are expected to decrease.
Among the EU4 and the UK countries, the herpes simplex prevalent cases were highest in Germany, followed by the UK which had ~ 1,511 thousand cases in 2023.
In the assessment done by DelveInsight, in 2023, the prevalence of recurrent herpes simplex cases in Japan showed HSV-2 accounted for over 67%, with HSV-1 following at 33%.
In 2023, among the 7MM, the diagnosed prevalent cases of herpes simplex were second highest in Germany and were found to be ~1,711 thousand cases which are expected to decrease during the forecast period.

Explore the evolving Herpes Simplex Market trends, key players, and future outlook.

KOL Views

To gaze into the epidemiology insights of the real world, we take KOLs and SMEs’ opinions working in the domain through primary research to fill the data gaps and validate our secondary research on disease prevalence.

DelveInsight’s analysts connected with 20+ KOLs to gather insights; however, interviews were conducted with 10+ KOLs in the 7MM. Centers such as the American Social Health Association, US; Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, US; Institute for Medical Virology, Germany; Centre Médicale de l'Institut Pasteur, France; University of Genova, Italy; University of Barcelona, Spain; Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan; and others were contacted. Their opinion helps understand and validate current disease prevalence, gender involved with the disease, diagnosis rate, and diagnostic criteria.

Scope of the Report

The report covers a segment of executive summary, descriptive overview of HSV, explaining its causes, signs and symptoms, and currently available diagnostic algorithms and guidelines.
Comprehensive insight has been provided into the epidemiology segments and forecasts, the future growth potential of diagnosis rate, disease progression, and diagnosis guidelines.
The report provides an edge for understanding trends, expert insights/KOL views, and patient journeys in the 7MM.
A detailed review of current challenges in establishing the diagnosis.

Herpes Simplex (HSV) Report Insights

Patient Population
Country-wise Epidemiology Distribution
Total Seroprevalence of HSV
Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV
Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV
Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV
Total Recurrent Cases of HSV

Herpes Simplex (HSV) Report Key Strengths

11 years Forecast
The 7MM Coverage
Parkinson's Disease Epidemiology Segmentation
Herpes Simplex (HSV) Report Assessment
Current Diagnostic Practices Patient Segmentation

Epidemiology Insights

What are the disease risk, burdens, and unmet needs of HSV? What will be the growth opportunities across the 7MM concerning the patient population of HSV?
What is the historical and forecasted HSV patient pool in the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan?
Why is the seroprevalent cases of HSV in Japan lower than the US?
Which country has a high patient share for HSV?

Reasons to Buy

Insights on patient burden/disease, evolution in diagnosis, and factors contributing to the change in the epidemiology of the disease during the forecast years.
To understand the HSV prevalence cases in varying geographies over the coming years.
A detailed overview of Age-specific diagnosed prevalence of HSV.
To understand the perspective of key opinion leaders around the current challenges with establishing the diagnosis options.
Detailed insights on various factors hampering disease diagnosis and other existing diagnostic challenges.

1. Key Insights

2. Report Introduction

3. HSV Epidemiology Overview at a Glance

3.1. Patient Share Distribution of HSV in 2021

3.2. Patient Share Distribution of HSV in 2034

4. Epidemiology Forecast Methodology

5. Executive Summary

6. Disease Background and Overview

6.1. Introduction

6.2. Signs and Symptoms

6.3. Etiology

6.4. Risk Factors

6.5. Diagnosis

6.5.1. Differential Diagnosis

7. Epidemiology and Patient Population

7.1. Key Findings

7.2. Assumptions and Rationale: The 7MM

7.2.1. Total Seroprevalence of HSV

7.2.2. Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV

7.2.3. Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV

7.2.4. Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV

7.2.5. Total Recurrent Cases of HSV

7.3. Total Seroprevalence of HSV in the 7MM

7.4. The United States

7.4.1. Total Seroprevalence of HSV in the US

7.4.2. Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in the US

7.4.3. Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the US

7.4.4. Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the US

7.4.5. Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in the US

7.5. EU4 and the UK

7.5.1. Germany

7.5.1.1. Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Germany

7.5.1.2. Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Germany

7.5.1.3. Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Germany

7.5.1.4. Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Germany

7.5.1.5. Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Germany

7.5.2. France

7.5.2.1. Total Seroprevalence of HSV in France

7.5.2.2. Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in France

7.5.2.3. Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in France

7.5.2.4. Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in France

7.5.2.5. Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in France

7.5.3.. Italy

7.5.3.1. Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Italy

7.5.3.2. Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Italy

7.5.3.3. Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Italy

7.5.3.4. Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Italy

7.5.3.5. Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Italy

7.5.4. Spain

7.5.4.1. Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Spain

7.5.4.2. Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Spain

7.5.4.3. Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Spain

7.5.4.4. Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Spain

7.5.4.5. Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Spain

7.5.5. The United Kingdom

7.5.5.1. Total Seroprevalence of HSV in the UK

7.5.5.2. Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in the UK

7.5.5.3. Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the UK

7.5.5.4. Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the UK

7.5.5.5. Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in the UK

7.6. Japan

7.6.1. Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Japan

7.6.2. Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Japan

7.6.3. Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Japan

7.6.4. Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Japan

7.6.5. Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Japan

8. Patient Journey

9. Key Opinion Leaders’ Views

10. Appendix

10.1. Bibliography

10.2. Acronyms and Abbreviations

10.3. Report Methodology

11. DelveInsight Capabilities

12. Disclaimer

13. About DelveInsight

List of Tables:

Table 1: Summary of HSV Epidemiology (2021-2034)

Table 2: Total Seroprevalence of HSV In the 7MM (2021-2034)

Table 3: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in the US (2021-2034)

Table 4: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in the US (2021-2034)

Table 5: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the US (2021-2034)

Table 6: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the US (2021-2034)

Table 7: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in the US (2021-2034)

Table 8: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Germany (2021-2034)

Table 9: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Germany (2021-2034)

Table 10: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Germany (2021-2034)

Table 11: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Germany (2021-2034)

Table 12: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Germany (2021-2034)

Table 13: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in France (2021-2034)

Table 14: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in France (2021-2034)

Table 15: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in France (2021-2034)

Table 16: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in France (2021-2034)

Table 17: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in France (2021-2034)

Table 18: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Italy (2021-2034)

Table 19: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Italy (2021-2034)

Table 20: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Italy (2021-2034)

Table 21: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Italy (2021-2034)

Table 22: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Italy (2021-2034)

Table 23: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Spain (2021-2034)

Table 24: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Spain (2021-2034)

Table 25: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Spain (2021-2034)

Table 26: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Spain (2021-2034)

Table 27: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Spain (2021-2034)

Table 28: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in the UK (2021-2034)

Table 29: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in the UK (2021-2034)

Table 30: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the UK (2021-2034)

Table 31: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the UK (2021-2034)

Table 32: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in the UK (2021-2034)

Table 33: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Japan (2021-2034)

Table 34: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Japan (2021-2034)

Table 35: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Japan (2021-2034)

Table 36: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Japan (2021-2034)

Table 37: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Japan (2021-2034)

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Total Seroprevalence of HSV In the 7MM (2021-2034)

Figure 2: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in the US (2021-2034)

Figure 3: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in the US (2021-2034)

Figure 4: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the US (2021-2034)

Figure 5: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the US (2021-2034)

Figure 6: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in the US (2021-2034)

Figure 7: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Germany (2021-2034)

Figure 8: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Germany (2021-2034)

Figure 9: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Germany (2021-2034)

Figure 10: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Germany (2021-2034)

Figure 11: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Germany (2021-2034)

Figure 12: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in France (2021-2034)

Figure 13: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in France (2021-2034)

Figure 14: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in France (2021-2034)

Figure 15: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in France (2021-2034)

Figure 16: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in France (2021-2034)

Figure 17: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Italy (2021-2034)

Figure 18: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Italy (2021-2034)

Figure 19: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Italy (2021-2034)

Figure 20: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Italy (2021-2034)

Figure 21: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Italy (2021-2034)

Figure 22: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Spain (2021-2034)

Figure 23: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Spain (2021-2034)

Figure 24: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Spain (2021-2034)

Figure 25: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Spain (2021-2034)

Figure 26: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Spain (2021-2034)

Figure 27: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in the UK (2021-2034)

Figure 28: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in the UK (2021-2034)

Figure 29: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the UK (2021-2034)

Figure 30: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in the UK (2021-2034)

Figure 31: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in the UK (2021-2034)

Figure 32: Total Seroprevalence of HSV in Japan (2021-2034)

Figure 33: Total Symptomatic Cases of HSV in Japan (2021-2034)

Figure 34: Total Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Japan (2021-2034)

Figure 35: Gender-specific Diagnosed Cases of HSV in Japan (2021-2034)

Figure 36: Total Recurrent Cases of HSV in Japan (2021-2034)

Figure 37: Patient Journey

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