non small cell lung cancer epidemiology forecast

Key Highlights

• Based on DelveInsight's assessment in 2025, the 7MM had approximately 539,000 incident cases of NSCLC. These are expected to rise due to the growing incident population and advancements in diagnostic capabilities during the forecast period (2026-2036).
• NSCLC incident cases in the United States form a substantial yet gradually stabilizing disease burden, characterized by declining overall incidence driven by long-term tobacco control measures alongside rising early-stage detections from expanded low-dose CT screening programs and incidental imaging findings in routine care.
• Gender-specific NSCLC incidence has evolved from a clear male predominance toward a narrower disparity, as female case rates have risen in line with changing smoking patterns and the increasing contribution of adenocarcinoma among never-smoker women.
• In 2025, adenocarcinoma (~116,000 cases) accounted for the largest share of incident NSCLC cases in the United States, followed by squamous cell carcinoma (~56,000 cases). The “others” (~27,500 cases) histological subtypes accounted for a moderate share, while large cell carcinoma (~3,600 cases) comprised the smallest proportion.
• Most NSCLC cases are diagnosed at advanced Stage IV, driven by delayed detection, limited screening access in underserved populations, nonspecific early symptoms, and socioeconomic barriers to timely care. Early-stage (Stage I) diagnoses are increasing, largely due to the expanded adoption of low-dose CT screening in high-risk individuals and a rise in incidental detections during routine imaging for other conditions.
• Genetic mutations and biomarkers highlight a biologically diverse disease landscape, with actionable oncogenic alterations accounting for a meaningful subset of incident cases. EGFR mutations represent one of the largest biomarker-defined populations, particularly prevalent among adenocarcinoma histology, never-smokers, and women, while ALK, ROS1, BRAF, MET exon 14 skipping, RET, and NTRK alterations together form smaller but clinically critical segments due to their high sensitivity to targeted therapies.

Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Epidemiology forecast in the 7MM

• 2025 Prevalent Cases of NSCLC: ~540,000
• NSCLC  Growth Rate (2026–2036): 0.7% CAGR

DelveInsight's ‘Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) – Epidemiology Forecast – 2036’ report delivers an in-depth understanding of the NSCLC , historical and forecasted epidemiology, in the United States, EU4 (Germany, Spain, Italy, and France), the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)  Understanding and Treatment Algorithm

NSCLC  Overview and Diagnosis

Lung cancer primarily originates in the lungs and may spread to lymph nodes or distant organs such as the brain; this process is called metastasis. It is mainly classified into two types: small cell lung cancer (SCLC) and NSCLC. NSCLC is the most common type, accounting for about 85% of all lung cancers. Compared with NSCLC, SCLC is more aggressive, composed of smaller cells, spreads rapidly, and can become fatal within weeks if untreated. NSCLC refers to all epithelial lung cancers other than SCLC and is mainly classified into adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, and large cell carcinoma, with less common types including adenosquamous and sarcomatoid carcinomas. Although strongly associated with cigarette smoking, adenocarcinoma may also occur in never-smokers. NSCLC is generally less sensitive to chemotherapy and radiation therapy than SCLC.

NSCLC arises from epithelial cells along the respiratory tract, from central bronchi to terminal alveoli. Histological subtype often correlates with the site of origin: squamous cell carcinoma typically develops near central bronchi, whereas adenocarcinoma and bronchioloalveolar carcinoma usually arise in peripheral lung tissue. Common symptoms of both NSCLC and SCLC include persistent cough, chest pain, shortness of breath, wheezing, loss of appetite, weight loss, and fatigue.

Further details are provided in the report.

Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Epidemiology

Key Findings from NSCLC  Epidemiological Analysis and Forecast

• Among the 7MM, the US accounted for the highest incident cases of NSCLC in 2025. This was followed by Japan, whereas the least number of cases were accounted by Spain.
• In 2025, Germany had the highest number (~57,000) of NSCLC cases among the EU4 and the UK, while Spain had the lowest number (~27,00).
• NSCLC is slightly more common in men than in women. In addition, NSCLC has a substantially higher prevalence in individuals aged 65 years and older; alarmingly, however, the number of cases in persons younger than age 65 years has risen.
• The total incident cases of NSCLC in accounted for approximately 23% of the 7MM in 2025, which are expected to increase by 2036.
• Most cases of NSCLC are diagnosed at advanced Stage IV, primarily due to delayed detection, limited access to screening in underserved populations, nonspecific early symptoms, and socioeconomic barriers to timely healthcare. However, diagnoses at early stages (Stage I) have been increasing, largely driven by the wider use of low-dose CT screening in high-risk individuals and the growing number of incidental findings during imaging performed for other medical conditions. In contrast, the incidence of Stage II–III disease has remained relatively stable.
• The rising incidence of adenocarcinoma may partly reflect improved evaluation and reporting practices, along with underlying idiopathic trends. This increase is also likely influenced by a sustained rise in cigarette smoking, as adenocarcinoma shows a strong dose response relationship with tobacco exposure and a slower decline in risk after smoking cessation compared with squamous cell carcinoma. Consequently, increasing regional smoking prevalence has contributed to higher overall NSCLC incidence, including adenocarcinoma.

Scope of the Report

• The report covers a segment of a descriptive overview of NSCLC , explaining their causes, signs and symptoms, and pathogenesis.
• Comprehensive insight has been provided into the epidemiology forecasts, the future growth potential of the diagnosis rate, and disease progression.

Report Insights

• Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Patient Population Forecast

Report Key Strengths

• Epidemiology-based (Epi-based) Bottom-up Forecasting
• 11-year Forecast
• Patient Burden Trends (by Geography)

FAQs

• What are the disease risks, burdens, and unmet needs of NSCLC? What will be the growth opportunities across the 7MM concerning the patient population with NSCLC?
• What is the historical and forecasted NSCLC  patient pool in the US, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the UK, and Japan?

Reasons to Buy

• Insights on patient burden/disease prevalence, evolution in diagnosis, and factors contributing to the change in the epidemiology of the disease during the forecast years.
• To understand key opinion leaders’ perspectives around the diagnostic challenges to overcome barriers in the future.
• Detailed insights on various factors hampering disease diagnosis and other existing diagnostic challenges.