Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) Epidemiology Forecast

Key Highlights

• In 2024, the United States recorded the highest number of breast cases among the 7MM, with approximately 310 thousand cases. This number is projected to grow to at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.6%. The increase is largely attributed to enhanced diagnostic tools, rising awareness among healthcare professionals and caregivers, and improvements in early screening practices.
• Within the EU4 and the UK, Germany is expected to report the highest number of TNBC incident cases, with the France and the UK following closely behind. 
• In Italy in 2024, the estimated number of gene mutation-specific cases reflects a notable distribution across key hereditary cancer-related genes. BRCA1 mutations account for the highest burden, with approximately 740 cases, followed by BARD1 mutations with 347 cases. BRCA2 mutations contribute to nearly 235 cases, while PALB2 and RAD51D mutations are comparatively less common.
• According to DelveInsight’s 2024 analysis, Stage II cases in the UK represented the largest proportion of cases, surpassing both Stage I and Stage III. This trend suggests a diagnostic concentration at intermediate disease progression, potentially reflecting improved early detection strategies that still fall short of capturing a majority at the earliest stage.
•  In Japan in 2024, the estimated number of TNBC cases stands at approximately 13,850 indicating a substantial burden of this aggressive breast cancer subtype. This number is expected to rise in the forecast period.

DelveInsight’s “Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) – Epidemiology Forecast – 2034” report delivers an in-depth understanding of TNBC, historical and forecasted epidemiology of TNBC in the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Geography Covered

• The United States
• EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom
• Japan

Study Period: 2021-2034

Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) Understanding 

Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) Overview

The breast is composed of varying tissue densities, from fatty to dense, interwoven with lobes, blood vessels, and lymphatic channels. Blood vessels sustain cellular health by supplying oxygen and nutrients, while lymphatic vessels aid in immune function and waste removal. Clusters of lymph nodes, such as the axillary nodes near the armpit, are considered regional to the breast and are critical in cancer staging and spread.

Breast cancer develops when normal breast cells undergo abnormal changes and proliferate uncontrollably, forming a tumor. Tumors may be benign (noncancerous) or malignant (cancerous). TNBC is a distinct and aggressive subtype, characterized by the absence of three key receptors that typically drive breast cancer growth: estrogen receptors (ER), progesterone receptors (PR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). Because TNBC lacks these receptors making it more challenging to treat and underscoring the need for alternative therapeutic strategies.

Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) Diagnosis

The term “TNBC diagnosis” is somewhat misleading, as it does not represent a distinct medical diagnosis but rather describes the molecular profile of a subset of breast cancers. Specifically, triple-negative breast cancer is defined by the absence of estrogen, progesterone, and HER2/neu receptors on tumor cells—features that significantly impact both prognosis and treatment options. While most breast cancers are identified through routine screening methods like mammography before the onset of symptoms, TNBC tends to occur more frequently in younger women and may progress more aggressively. Diagnostic evaluation typically involves a combination of imaging techniques—mammography, ultrasound, and MRI—followed by a confirmatory biopsy to assess receptor status and guide clinical decision-making. 

Further details related to diagnosis are provided in the report…

Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) Epidemiology

For the purpose of designing the patient-based model for TNBC, the report provides historical as well as forecasted epidemiology segmented by total incident cases of breast cancer, total incident cases of TNBC, gene mutation-specific incident cases of TNBC, stage-specific incident cases of TNBC, age-specific incident cases of TNBC and line-wise treated incident cases of TNBC in the 7MM covering the United States, EU4 countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan, from 2021 to 2034. 

• In 2024 analysis estimates that the total number of incident breast cancer cases across the 7MM is approximately 700 thousand underscoring the significant disease burden and continued need for effective screening in these regions. 
• In 2024, the United States is projected to report approximately 46 thousand cases of TNBC, reflecting a substantial burden of this aggressive breast cancer subtype. This figure is anticipated to rise in the coming years, signalling a growing clinical and public health challenge that underscores the urgent need for improved early detection strategies and the development of targeted therapies for TNBC.  
• According to DelveInsight’s analysis, BRCA1 mutations represent the largest share of gene mutation-associated TNBC cases in the UK, accounting for 9% of the total cases in 2024. This is followed by BARD1 at 4% and BRCA2 at 3%. These findings underscore the dominant role of BRCA1 in the regional genetic landscape, while also highlighting the substantial contribution of BARD1 and BRCA2 mutations to hereditary breast cancer.
• In Spain, 2024 estimates indicate that Stage II TNBC constitutes the largest share of incident cases, with approximately 2,500 cases, followed by Stage III at around 1,500 cases. Stage I cases are slightly lower, estimated at 1,000, while Stage IV represents the smallest proportion with roughly 285 cases. 
• TNBC cases are distributed across various age groups. In 2024, in the UK, the highest number of cases is observed in individuals under 45 years, with approximately 3,000 cases. This is followed by the 45─54 age group, which accounts for around 2,650 cases. These figures highlight the varying impact of TNBC across different age categories, with a notable incidence in both younger and older age groups. 
• In 2024, Japan reports approximately 2,690 cases of Stage I TNBC, with Stage II accounting for around 6,550 cases, Stage III for about 3,870 cases, and Stage IV for approximately 740 cases. These figures reflect the typical progression of breast cancer, with earlier stages receiving adjuvant therapy, while more advanced or relapsed cases are treated with subsequent lines of therapy.

KOL Views

To gaze into the epidemiology insights of the real world, we take KOLs and SMEs’ opinions working in the domain through primary research to fill the data gaps and validate our secondary research on disease incidence.

DelveInsight’s analysts connected with 20+ KOLs to gather insights; however, interviews were conducted with 10+ KOLs in the 7MM. Centers such as the Icahn School of Medicine, US; Children's Hospital Los Angeles, US; University of Tübingen, Germany; Institut Gustave Roussy, France; University of L'Aquila, Italy; University of Manchester, the UK; Fukushima Medical University, Japan and others were contacted. Their opinion helps understand and validate current disease incidence, gender involved with the disease, diagnosis rate, and diagnostic criteria.

Scope of the Report

• The report covers a segment of executive summary, descriptive overview of TNBC explaining its causes, signs and symptoms, and currently available diagnostic algorithms and guidelines.
• Comprehensive insight has been provided into the epidemiology segments and forecasts, the future growth potential of diagnosis rate, disease progression, and diagnosis guidelines.
• The report provides an edge for understanding trends, expert insights/KOL views, and patient journeys in the 7MM.
• A detailed review of current challenges in establishing the diagnosis.

Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) Report Insights

• Patient Population
• Country-wise Epidemiology Distribution
• Total Incident Cases of Breast Cancer 
• Total Incident Cases of TNBC 
• Gene Mutation-specific Incident Cases of TNBC 
• Stage-specific Incident Cases of TNBC 
• Age-specific Incident Cases of TNBC 
• Line-wise Treated Incident cases of TNBC 

Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) Report Key Strengths

• 10 years Forecast
• The 7MM Coverage 
• TNBC Epidemiology Segmentation 

Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) Report Assessment

• Current Diagnostic Practices 
• Patient Segmentation

Epidemiology Insights

• What are the disease risk, burdens, and unmet needs of TNBC? What will be the growth opportunities across the 7MM concerning the patient population of TNBC?
• What is the historical and forecasted TNBC patient pool in the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan?
• Why is the incident cases of TNBC in Japan lower than the US?
• Which country has a high patient share for TNBC?

Reasons to Buy

• Insights on patient burden/disease, evolution in diagnosis, and factors contributing to the change in the epidemiology of the disease during the forecast years.
• To understand the TNBC incidence cases in varying geographies over the coming years.
• To understand the perspective of key opinion leaders around the current challenges with establishing the diagnosis options.
• Detailed insights on various factors hampering disease diagnosis and other existing diagnostic challenges.