anal cancer epidemiology forecast

• The total incident cases of anal cancer in the 7MM were around ~20,500 cases in 2025, out of which the highest incident cases of this disease were seen in the United States.
• According to the American Cancer Society (2024), of all the incident cases of anal cancer in the United States, only about 32% of the cases were in males, while the remaining 68% of the cases occurred in female patients.
• According to the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (2025), among all the cases of anal cancer in the United States, about 91% are thought to be attributable to be caused by HPV infection.
• As per the study by Yamada et al. (2022), among all the incident cases of anal cancer in Japan, 40% were localized, 43% were regional, and 16.7% were metastatic.
• Anal cancer is relatively uncommon, accounting for about ~2% of all reported gastrointestinal cancers in the United States.
• Anal squamous cell cancer (SCC) occurs most frequently, accounting for approximately 75% of all anal canal cancers.
• According to SEER (2024), when all the cases of anal cancer were distributed in age groups, it was observed that in the United States, anal cancer is most commonly diagnosed in older adults, with nearly 60% of cases occurring in those aged 55–74, and only a small minority (5.8%) in individuals under 45.

Anal Cancer Epidemiology Forecast in the United States

• 2025 Incident Cases of Anal Cancer: ~11,000
• 2036 Projected Incident Cases of Anal Cancer: XXXX
• Anal Cancer Growth Rate (2026–2036): XX% CAGR

DelveInsight's ‘Anal Cancer Epidemiology Forecast – 2036’ report delivers an in-depth understanding of the Anal Cancer, historical and forecasted epidemiology in the United States, EU4 (Germany, Spain, Italy, and France) and the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Anal Cancer Understanding and Diagnosis Algorithm

Anal Cancer Overview

Anal cancer is relatively rare, comprising only approximately 2.5% of gastrointestinal tumors; however, the incidence of anal cancer has been steadily increasing in recent years, with a notable rise observed over the past three to four decades.

The rectum and the anal canal are structurally connected. The rectum begins at the point where the taenia converges and extends to the upper border of the puborectalis muscle; the anal canal starts at the upper border of the puborectalis muscle and extends to the anal verge. Rectal and anal cancers are different types of tumors. Adenocarcinomas are the most common form of rectal cancer, whereas anal cancers are generally squamous-cell carcinomas (SCCs) that arise from the squamous mucosa of the anal canal.

SCCs are the most common type of anal cancer; other rare types include adenocarcinomas, melanoma, and basal cell carcinoma. Many behavioral risk factors, such as an increased number of sexual partners and anoreceptive intercourse, are mediated through HPV infection acquisition. Important non-sexual risk factors include chronic immunosuppression and cigarette smoking.

Most anal cancers seem to be linked to infection with HPV. While HPV infection seems to be important in the development of anal cancer, the vast majority of people with HPV infections do not get anal cancer. A great deal of research is being done to learn how HPV might cause anal cancer. There is good evidence that HPV causes many anal squamous cell carcinomas. But the role of this virus in causing anal adenocarcinomas is less certain.

Anal Cancer Diagnosis

The initial diagnostic evaluation of anal cancer includes digital rectal examination (DRE) and proctoscopy with biopsy.

According to joint guidelines from the European Society for Medical Oncology, the European Society of Surgical Oncology, and the European Society of Radiotherapy and Oncology (ESMO-ESSO-ESTRO), as well as guidelines from the American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons, MRI of the pelvis and endoanal ultrasound (EAUS) should be used for the standard management of anal cancer. If MRI is not available, EAUS is recommended as an alternative. However, EAUS should be reserved for small T1 lesions because of its limited field of view, which may restrict the identification of regional lymph nodes.

CT of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis with intravenous contrast is commonly used to evaluate distant metastatic disease and lymphadenopathy. CT offers several advantages in the assessment of ASCC. The 18F-FDG PET/CT technique exhibits sensitivity in detecting the primary tumor; however, its ability to fully characterize the tumor is limited. The 18F-FDG PET/CT technique is currently recommended for radiation treatment planning because of its ability to detect nodal disease. PET/CT is more sensitive than CT alone in identifying nodes; however, it has modest specificity, leading to false-positive findings in cases of inflammatory conditions.

Further details are provided in the report.

Anal Cancer Epidemiology

Key Findings from Anal Cancer Epidemiological Analysis and Forecast 

• According to DelveInsight’s estimates, in 2025, there were nearly 20,500 incident cases of anal cancer in the 7MM, out of which the US accounted for the highest incident cases in 2025.

• In EU4 and the UK, females accounted for more incident cases of anal cancer, i.e., nearly 70%, as compared to males with incident cases of nearly 30%, in 2025.

• As per the analysis, in the United States in 2025, anal cancer was found to be more incident in patients aged 65 years and above (~60%), followed by patients aged 50-64 years (~37%), and it was lowest in patients below 50 years (~4%).

• In 2025, among EU4 and the UK, Germany accounted for the highest number of cases of anal cancer, whereas Spain accounted for the least number of cases.

• In 2025, Japan accounted for approximately 1,200 incident cases of anal cancer accounted for approximately, which was significantly lower compared to the EU4 and the US.

• In Japan, HPV negative (~1, 100 cases) cases of anal cancer were found to be more incident than HPV positive (~100 cases) in 2025.

Scope of the Report

• The report covers a segment of an executive summary, a descriptive overview of Anal Cancer, explaining its causes, signs and symptoms, and pathogenesis.

• Comprehensive insight has been provided into the epidemiology segments and forecasts, the future growth potential of the diagnosis rate, and disease progression.

Report Insights

Anal Cancer Patient Population Forecast

Report Key Strengths

• Epidemiology‑based (epi‑based) Bottom‑up Forecasting
• 11-year Forecast 
• Patient Burden Trends (by geography)

Discover comprehensive Anal Cancer market insights, epidemiology trends, emerging therapies, and future opportunities shaping the treatment landscape through 2036.

FAQs

• What are the disease risks, burdens, and unmet needs of Anal Cancer? What will be the growth opportunities across the 7MM concerning the patient population with Anal Cancer?

• What is the historical and forecasted Anal Cancer patient pool in the US, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the UK, and Japan?

Reasons to Buy

• Insights on patient burden/disease prevalence, evolution in diagnosis, and factors contributing to the change in the epidemiology of the disease during the forecast years.

• To understand key opinion leaders’ perspectives on the diagnostic challenges to overcome barriers in the future.

• Detailed insights into various factors hampering disease diagnosis and other existing diagnostic challenges.