chronic obstructive pulmonary disease copd epidemiology forecast

Key Highlights

• COPD involves structural lung damage from chronic inflammation, often beyond just smoking, with nearly one-fourth of COPD patients linked to other risk factors like environmental exposures and early-life insults/injuries (utero and during childhood). Women, rural populations, and those with low Socioeconomic Status (SES) face higher disease burden, lower diagnosis rates, and worse disease outcomes, highlighting underdiagnosis and the need for personalized, inclusive care.
• The burden of COPD is highest in the US, followed by EU4 and the UK, and Japan. Diagnostic practices, healthcare infrastructure, and surveillance systems significantly influence reported COPD rates.
• In 2024, among the 7MM, the US had the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD. In the US, there were ~16.5 million diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD in 2024.
• In the US, recent data show that the prevalence of COPD among the adult population has remained largely stable over the past decade, at around 6%. However, the prevalence is increasing among those aged 65 years or older and among current and former smokers. Higher rates are linked to rural residency, lower education, and poverty.
• The patient volume growth of COPD is projected to increase over the coming years due to a combination of rising incidence, continued exposure to COPD risk factors, increased diagnosis and awareness rates, and an aging population.
• In 2024, in EU4 and the UK, it is estimated that  ~8.6 million patients were eligible for treatment of COPD.
• While COPD was once considered a disease of older men, it now places a growing health burden on women as well, with gender differences in prevalence narrowing in many regions. Women may be more susceptible to developing COPD and experiencing severe impacts from risk factors like smoking, even at lower levels of exposure, compared to men.
• The higher prevalence of COPD among individuals aged 65+ years can be attributed to cumulative exposure to risk factors over time. Long-term smoking remains a primary cause, with decades of exposure leading to chronic respiratory damage.
• COPD severity is classified by the level of airflow limitation measured with spirometry, using the GOLD criteria: GOLD 1 as mild (FEV₁ ≥80% predicted), GOLD 2 as moderate (50–79%), GOLD 3 as severe (30–49%), and GOLD 4 as very severe (<30%) airflow.

DelveInsight’s ‘COPD– Epidemiology– 2034’ report delivers an in-depth understanding of the COPD, historical and forecasted epidemiology in the United States, EU4 (Germany, Spain, Italy, and France) and the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Geography Covered

• The United States
• EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom
• Japan

Study Period: 2020–2034

COPD Understanding and Diagnostic Algorithm

COPD Overview

COPD is a heterogeneous lung condition marked by chronic respiratory symptoms such as shortness of breath (dyspnea), coughing, mucus production (expectoration), and/or recurrent flare-ups (exacerbations). It results from structural abnormalities in the airways—including bronchitis and bronchiolitis—and/or the alveoli (as seen in emphysema), leading to persistent and often progressive airflow limitation.

The main risk factor for COPD is tobacco smoking, but other environmental exposures, such as biomass fuel exposure and air pollution, may contribute. Besides exposures, host factors predispose individuals to develop COPD. These include genetic abnormalities, abnormal lung development, and accelerated aging. The airflow limitation is usually measured by spirometry, as this is the most widely available and reproducible test of lung function. Many previous definitions of COPD have emphasized the terms “emphysema” and “chronic bronchitis.” COPD is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide that induces an economic and social burden that is both substantial and increasing.

COPD Diagnosis

The diagnosis of COPD is based on the presence of persistent respiratory symptoms such as chronic cough, sputum production, and breathlessness, particularly in individuals with risk factors like smoking or exposure to environmental pollutants. The gold standard for confirming the diagnosis is spirometry, which demonstrates irreversible airflow limitation, specifically a post-bronchodilator FEV₁/FVC ratio of less than 0.70. Additional assessments may include chest X-rays or CT scans to exclude other lung conditions, and blood tests to check for arterial blood gases or alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency in younger or non-smoking patients. Tools like the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) and the modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea scale help evaluate symptom severity, while the GOLD classification is used to stage the disease and guide management.

Further details are provided in the report.

COPD Epidemiology

As the market is derived using a patient-based model, the COPD epidemiology chapter in the report provides both historical and forecasted epidemiology. This includes the total diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD, subtype-specific, gender-specific, age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases, diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD based on the severity of airflow limitation, along with treatment-eligible cases. This analysis spans the 7MM, covering the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), United Kingdom, and Japan from 2020 to 2034.

• The total number of diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD in the 7MM was about ~31 million in 2024.
• In the US, cigarette smoking is the primary cause of COPD, with significantly higher rates observed in both current and former smokers compared to those who never smoked. Additionally, individuals with higher family incomes tend to have lower COPD prevalence, indicating a link between socioeconomic status and disease risk.
• In comparison to the US, in EU4 and the UK, COPD continues to be more prevalent among men, largely reflecting historical patterns of higher smoking rates and occupational exposures in male populations. Although the gender gap has narrowed over time with rising diagnoses in women, men still represent a larger share of the COPD burden.
• In EU4 and the UK, COPD cases were highest in Germany in 2024, whereas the minimum number of cases was in the UK, cases in 2024.
• The US accounted for the highest GOLD 2 cases (~8.2 million), which were followed by GOLD 3 (~4.3 million) cases, compared to other countries in the 7MM.
• In 2024, chronic bronchitis accounted for the highest share of COPD cases in EU4 and the UK, comprising ~6.42 million cases.
• In Japan, there is a significant gap between the estimated number of COPD patients and those receiving treatment, indicating widespread underdiagnosis; this highlights the high unmet need to enhance early detection and management efforts. Japan observed the maximum number of cases from the age group 65–74 years (~283,000) in 2024.

COPD Report Insights

• Patient population
• Country-wise epidemiology distribution

COPD Report Key Strengths

• Ten-year forecast
• 7MM coverage
• COPD epidemiology segmentation

FAQs

• What are the COPD disease risks, burdens, and unmet needs? What will be the growth opportunities across the 7MM concerning the patient population with COPD?
• What is the historical and forecasted COPD patient pool in the US, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the UK, and Japan?
• At what CAGR is the population expected to grow in the 7MM during the study period (2020–2034)?
• What will be the growth opportunities in the 7MM with respect to the patient population of COPD?

Reasons to Buy

• Insights on patient burden/disease prevalence, evolution in diagnosis, and factors contributing to the change in the epidemiology of the disease during the forecast years.
• To understand key opinion leaders’ perspectives on the diagnostic challenges to overcome barriers in the future.
• Detailed insights on various factors hampering disease diagnosis and other existing diagnostic challenges.