Malignant Pleural Effusion Epidemiology Forecast

Key Highlights

• In 2024, the US accounted for roughly 35% of all incident cases of MPE within the 7MM. Looking ahead, the number of cases in the US is expected to grow steadily, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.7% between 2025–2034. This trend reflects a gradual but consistent increase in disease burden over the forecast period.
• In 2024, DelveInsight identified lung cancer as the primary cause of MPE in EU4 and the UK, accounting for approximately 105 thousand cases. Breast cancer contributed around 52 thousand cases, lymphoma nearly 26 thousand and other cancers 63 thousand —underscoring lung cancer’s significant impact on the overall MPE burden in these regions.
• In 2024, Japan exhibited an unusual gender trend in MPE diagnoses, with females comprising nearly 60% of cases—markedly outpacing the approximate 40% recorded in males. This female predominance contrasts sharply with the male-skewed patterns seen elsewhere, pointing to a distinctive epidemiological profile within the Japanese population.
• DelveInsight's analysis shows that in 2024, France reported around 40 thousand symptomatic MPE cases, alongside roughly 10 thousand asymptomatic cases. The number of cases is expected to increase steadily throughout the forecast period from 2025 to 2034.
• The rising incidence of MPE is largely driven by increasing cancer cases, particularly lung and breast cancers, due to aging populations and lifestyle-related risk factors. Additionally, improved imaging techniques and diagnostic awareness also contribute to higher detection rates.

 

DelveInsight’s “Malignant Pleural Effusion (MPE) – Epidemiology Forecast – 2034” report delivers an in-depth understanding of MPE, historical and forecasted epidemiology of MPE in the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Geography Covered

• The United States
• EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom
• Japan

Study Period: 2020–2034

Malignant Pleural Effusion (MPE) Understanding

Malignant Pleural Effusion (MPE) Overview

MPE is marked by the accumulation of cancerous fluid between the chest wall and lungs, commonly arising in metastatic disease. It most often occurs in lung, breast, gynecological cancers, lymphoma, and mesothelioma. Symptoms range widely—from asymptomatic to severe discomfort. The most prominent clinical feature is respiratory distress, especially dyspnea, which intensifies with increased fluid volume and impaired lung-pleura dynamics. Chest pain, often sharp in mesothelioma cases due to parietal pleura invasion, is another critical symptom. Breathlessness may worsen during physical exertion or when lying on the side opposite the effusion, influenced by fluid mechanics and mediastinal shift. Other manifestations include chronic cough, weight loss, fatigue, anorexia, and lymphadenopathy, reflecting the patient’s overall cancer burden. Although fever is uncommon, cachexia and systemic symptoms are frequently observed. MPE significantly affects quality of life and demands vigilant clinical attention, especially in the context of progressive malignancies.

 

Malignant Pleural Effusion (MPE) Diagnosis

MPE is confirmed through the detection of malignant cells within pleural fluid or tissue. Historically, cytological evaluation of pleural fluid and histological analysis from tissue biopsy have been the primary diagnostic methods. However, advancements in recent years have introduced a spectrum of innovative tools enhancing early detection. These include ultrasound and CT imaging with notable radiographic signs, image-guided biopsies, Positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) scans using fluorodeoxyglucose, thoracoscopic visual biopsies, tumor marker profiling, and immunocytochemistry.

 

Ultrasound excels in evaluating effusion characteristics and assisting in interventions. CT scans reveal pleural irregularities, though their sensitivity is moderate. PET-CT provides strong specificity for staging disease involvement. While cytology remains common, its diagnostic yield is limited. Image-guided pleural biopsies, particularly through thoracoscopy, stand as the diagnostic benchmark, offering high accuracy and added therapeutic benefit.

 

Liquid biopsy—still under active investigation—represents a promising, minimally invasive option. By detecting tumor DNA and exosomes via next-generation sequencing, it offers potential for mutation profiling and real-time monitoring of disease evolution.

Further details related to diagnosis are provided in the report…

Malignant Pleural Effusion (MPE) Epidemiology

For the purpose of designing the patient-based model for MPE, the report provides historical as well as forecasted epidemiology segmented by incident cases of MPE, tumor type-specific incident cases of MPE, gender-specific incident cases of MPE, and symptom-specific incident cases of MPE in the 7MM covering the United States, EU4 countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan, from 2020 to 2034.

• DelveInsight estimates that in 2024, the 7MM reported nearly 485 thousand incident cases of MPE, underscoring the considerable healthcare impact of this condition across these key regions.
• In 2024, the US accounted for a substantial portion of MPE burden across the 7MM with an estimated 170 thousand new cases reported. According to DelveInsight, this number is expected to increase by 2034, indicating a rising disease burden.
• In 2024, lung cancer emerged as the predominant driver of MPE cases in Japan, accounting for nearly 40% of the total burden. Breast cancer followed with 20%, while lymphoma contributed 5%. The remaining 35% stemmed from various other malignancies, reflecting the diverse oncologic origins of MPE in these regions.
• In 2024, MPE demonstrated a marked gender imbalance across EU4 and the UK, with males representing close to 60% of incident cases, while females accounted for roughly 40% in Germany. This disparity underscores a clear male predominance in MPE incidence within these regions.
• According to DelveInsight's analysis, Japan recorded nearly 50 thousand symptomatic cases of MPE in 2024, while approximately 12 thousand cases were asymptomatic.

KOL Views

To gaze into the epidemiology insights of the real world, we take KOLs and SMEs’ opinions working in the domain through primary research to fill the data gaps and validate our secondary research on disease incidence.

 

DelveInsight’s analysts connected with 20+ KOLs to gather insights; however, interviews were conducted with 10+ KOLs in the 7MM. Centers such as the Johns Hopkins Hospital, USA, US; University Medicine Essen - Ruhrlandklinik, Germany; Institut Curi, France; Università Politecnica delle Marche Home, Italy; Arnau de Vilanova University Hospital, Spain; Royal Brompton and Harefield hospitals Trust, UK Kyushu Yamaguchi Thoracic Oncology Group, Japan and others were contacted. Their opinion helps understand and validate current disease incidence, gender involved with the disease, diagnosis rate, and diagnostic criteria.

Scope of the Report

• The report covers a segment of executive summary, descriptive overview of MPE, explaining its causes, signs and symptoms, and currently available diagnostic algorithms and guidelines.
• Comprehensive insight has been provided into the epidemiology segments and forecasts, the future growth potential of diagnosis rate, disease progression, and diagnosis guidelines.
• The report provides an edge for understanding trends, expert insights/KOL views, and patient journeys in the 7MM.
• A detailed review of current challenges in establishing the diagnosis.

Malignant Pleural Effusion (MPE) Report Insights

• Patient Population
• Country-wise Epidemiology Distribution
• Incident Cases of MPE
• Tumor Type-specific Incident Cases of MPE
• Gender-specific Incident Cases of MPE
• Symptom-specific Incident Cases of MPE

Malignant Pleural Effusion (MPE) Report Key Strengths

• 10 years Forecast
• The 7MM Coverage
• MPE Epidemiology Segmentation

Malignant Pleural Effusion (MPE) Report Assessment

• Current Diagnostic Practices
• Patient Segmentation

Epidemiology Insights

• What are the disease risk, burdens, and unmet needs of MPE? What will be the growth opportunities across the 7MM concerning the patient population of MPE?
• What is the historical and forecasted MPE patient pool in the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan?
• Why are the incident cases of MPE in Japan lower than the US?
• Which country has a high patient share for MPE?

Reasons to Buy

• Insights on patient burden/disease, evolution in diagnosis, and factors contributing to the change in the epidemiology of the disease during the forecast years.
• To understand the MPE incidence cases in varying geographies over the coming years.
• A detailed overview of tumor type-specific, gender, symptom-specific incident cases of MPE.
• To understand the perspective of key opinion leaders around the current challenges with establishing the diagnosis options.
• Detailed insights on various factors hampering disease diagnosis and other existing diagnostic challenges.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is the forecast period covered in the report?

The MPE Epidemiology report for the 7MM covers the forecast period from 2025 to 2034, providing a projection of epidemiology dynamics and trends during this timeframe.

 

2. Out of all EU4 countries and the UK, which country had the highest population of MPE cases in 2024?

The highest cases of MPE were found in Germany among the EU4 and the UK in 2024.

 

3. How is epidemiological data collected and analyzed for forecasting purposes?

Epidemiological data is collected through surveys, clinical studies, health records, and other sources. It is then analyzed to calculate disease rates, identify trends, and project future disease burdens using mathematical models.

 

4. Out of all 7MM countries, which country had the highest population of MPE cases in 2024?

The highest cases of MPE were found in the US among the 7MM in 2024.