Nontuberculous Mycobacterial (NTM) Infections Epidemiology Forecast

Nontuberculous Mycobacteria (NTM) Infections Insights and Trends

• In 2025, the total number of diagnosed prevalent cases of NTM in the 7MM was around 400,000. Among the 7MM countries, the US accounted for the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases, contributing approximately 125,000 cases.
• Among EU4 and the UK, Germany accounted for the highest diagnosed prevalence of NTM infections, with more than 50,000 of the total cases. In contrast, with only approximately 30,000 cases, France reported the lowest diagnosed prevalence of NTM infections in 2025.
• Female predominance is consistently observed across the 7MM, particularly among patients with pulmonary NTM disease, likely reflecting the higher prevalence of bronchiectasis and other structural lung disorders, along with biological susceptibility. Although the magnitude of female predominance varies across European countries due to differences in COPD, prior tuberculosis, smoking-related lung disease, and species distribution, females continue to account for the majority of cases in most markets.
• Mycobacterium avium (M. avium) remains the predominant NTM species across the 7MM due to its widespread environmental distribution and strong association with pulmonary disease, while Mycobacterium abscessus (M. abscessus), despite its lower prevalence, represents a disproportionately high-unmet need.
• The true epidemiological burden of NTM infections remains underestimated due to underdiagnosis, delayed diagnosis, and inconsistent surveillance systems. The absence of mandatory reporting in many countries, coupled with variable diagnostic practices and limited awareness, results in fragmented prevalence and incidence estimates.
• Improving diagnostic infrastructure is expanding the identifiable NTM patient pool. The lower diagnosed prevalence in countries such as the UK and Spain likely reflects under diagnosis rather than true epidemiological differences, driven by less established lung screening compared with Japan and the US. As structured screening programs and advanced molecular diagnostics become more widely adopted, earlier and more accurate detection is expected to increase diagnosed NTM prevalence.

DelveInsight’s “Nontuberculous Mycobacteria (NTM) Infections – Epidemiology Forecast – 2036” report delivers an in depth understanding of NTM, historical and forecasted epidemiology in the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Geography Covered

• North America: The United States
• Europe: Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom
• Asia-Pacific: Japan

Nontuberculous Mycobacteria (NTM) Infections Understanding

Nontuberculous Mycobacteria (NTM) Infections Overview and Diagnosis

NTM infections are diseases caused by bacteria in the genus Mycobacterium, excluding those that cause tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis complex) or leprosy/Hansen's disease (M. leprae). The main risk factors for NTM infection include pre-existing lung disease, reduced ciliary function, heterozygosity for mutations in the Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane conductance Regulator (CFTR) gene, breaches in the skin or soft tissues, and immunodeficiency. Environmental factors, such as water sources and reservoirs, and NTM growth characteristics under different climatic conditions also contribute to risk.

NTM lung disease is diagnosed based on a combination of clinical symptoms, radiographic findings, and microbiological evidence. For the detection of NTM, staining and culture methods are primary laboratory techniques. Acid-fast staining methods, such as Ziehl-Neelsen or fluorochrome (auramine) staining, are used to identify acid-fast bacilli (AFB) in clinical samples. Radiologically, imaging typically reveals nodular-bronchiectatic or fibrocavitary patterns. For diagnosing NTM-PD, sputum samples are usually sufficient for the fibrocavitary form, but BAL culture is more sensitive for the nodular bronchiectatic form.

Further details related to country-based variations are provided in the report…

Nontuberculous Mycobacteria (NTM) Infections Epidemiology

Key Findings from NTM Epidemiological Analysis and Forecast

• According to DelveInsight analysis, more than 40,000 males and 80,000 females were affected with NTM infections in the US in 2025, depicting a clear gender disparity due to hormonal factors.
• M. avium remains the most prevalent causative species across EU4 and the UK, accounting for approximately 70,000 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2025. In comparison, M. abscessus represents a smaller yet clinically significant proportion, with more than 17,000 diagnosed prevalent cases, while other NTM species collectively contribute around 120,000 cases.
• According to DelveInsight’s analysis, moderate NTM infections constituted the largest proportion of diagnosed cases across EU4 and the UK in 2025, with approximately 115,000 cases, followed by mild (70,000) and severe (26,000) cases.
• Pulmonary NTM infections accounted for the majority of diagnosed prevalent cases in Japan in 2025, with approximately 60,000 cases, compared with approximately 6,500 cases of extrapulmonary NTM infections.

Industry Experts and Physician Views for Nontuberculous Mycobacteria (NTM)

To keep up with NTM patient trends, we take Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) opinions working in the domain through primary research to fill the data gaps and validate our secondary research. Industry Experts were contacted for insights on NTM epidemiology, including MD, PhD, Instructor, Postdoctoral Researcher, Professor, Researcher, and others.

DelveInsight’s analysts connected with 20+ KOLs to gather insights at country level. Centers such as the National Jewish Health, Oregon Health & Science University, Hannover Medical School, University of Sassari, Barcelona University etc. were contacted.

Scope of the Report

• The report covers a segment of an executive summary, a descriptive overview of NTM, explaining its causes, signs, symptoms, and pathogenesis.
• Comprehensive insight has been provided into the epidemiology segments and forecasts, the future growth potential of the diagnosis rate, and disease progression.

Report Insights

• Nontuberculous Mycobacteria (NTM) Patient Population Forecast

Report Key Strengths

• Epidemiology-based (Epi-based) Bottom-up Forecasting
• Artificial Intelligence (AI)-Enabled Market Research Report
• 11-Year Forecast

FAQs

• What are the disease risks, burdens, and unmet needs of NTM?
• What will be the growth opportunities across the 7MM concerning the patient population with NTM?
• What is the NTM prevalence in the US, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the UK, and Japan?
• What is the historical and forecasted NTM patient pool in the US, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the UK, and Japan?

Reasons to Buy

• Insights on NTM burden and disease prevalence, evolution in diagnosis, and factors contributing to the change in the epidemiology of the disease during the forecast years.
• To understand key opinion leaders’ perspectives around the diagnostic challenges to overcome barriers in the future.
• Detailed insights on various factors hampering disease diagnosis and other existing diagnostic challenges.
• Clear methodology, validated assumptions, and data-driven rationale to assess the NTM epidemiology analysis and patient population trends.