Summary
Semaglutide patent expiry is staggered, not simultaneous: early wave in 2026 (India, China, Brazil, Canada, South Africa), mid wave ~2031 (UK, EU4, Japan), late wave 2032–33 (US).
India and China are the biggest near-term battlegrounds, covering ~40% of the world population and a third of global obesity cases.
The US remains Novo's most valuable and most protected market, shielded by a patent thicket through 2033.
Eli Lilly has overtaken Novo Nordisk as GLP-1 market leader, with tirzepatide protected until 2036.
Generics are mobilizing fast, especially in India and China, setting up a major access expansion.
For nearly a decade, semaglutide...
